Organic food consumption dynamics in Germany during economic crises
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5219/scifood.21Keywords:
consumption, organic food, Markov Regime Switching (MRS) model, Error Correction Model (ECM), crisisAbstract
This study investigates the effects of the 2008 global economic crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic on organic food consumption in Germany, the largest organic market in Europe. Specifically, it examines (1) the relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and organic food consumption during crisis and non-crisis periods (disposable income is also employed as an alternative measure instead of GDP to verify the stability of the results), (2) the presence of a long-term equilibrium between these variables, (3) the short-term dynamics governing the adjustment toward this equilibrium, and (4) the differences in these dynamics under stable economic conditions and crisis periods. To analyze these relationships, the study employs an Error Correction Model (ECM) with Markov Regime Switching (MRS) and Threshold Cointegration Methodology (TCM), as both modeling frameworks allow for the identification of structural changes in the data. The findings indicate a significant dependence of organic food consumption on GDP (income), but only in non-crisis periods. While a long-term equilibrium relationship between GDP (income) and organic food consumption is confirmed, the adjustment mechanism toward this equilibrium varies considerably between economic stability and crisis periods.
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References
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